Saturday, November 20, 2010

Thought 150: The crystal ball will not work


If you can lean over the "present" and can try to peak into the "future", you will never make a mistake. In life, however, there is no way to look into the "next page" – not even into the next moment. In the real world, the crystal ball does not work.

There is always a measure of uncertainty in anything that you wish to accomplish. One of the ironies of life is that you must assume that you know the future and act. Inaction in the face of uncertainty is no virtue. It is the action in the face of uncertainty that is needed. A manager is trained to take decisions against the backdrop of uncertainty. He does not like to gamble - but he is willing to take calculated risks. The office clerk will not take such calculated risks. He can only act, if he is certain that he will not be blamed, should something go wrong. This is a typical bureaucratic tradition of ensuring safety. The "Yes Minister" is always safe. The manager is willing to take the blame.

The next thought is about “You can never be right all the time”

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